Analyzing the Lucic Deal

Milan Lucic signed a three year, 12.25 million dollar deal, which amounts to 4.083333 million dollars per season.  Now before we make judgement to if we overpaid, we must take into account other deals similar players signed.  I will use Dustin Brown, and Ryan Clowe.

Dustin Brown, the 13th overall pick of the 2003 NHL draft signed a six year, 19.05 million dollar contract at the beginning of his third year, a la Milan Lucic.  The deal broke down with salaries of 2.6, 2.45, 3.5, 3.5, 3.5, 3.5 with a cap hit of 3.175 million dollars.  His first full season, he had 14 goals and 14 assists.  In his second season he had 17 goals and 29 assists.  In his third full season, the one in which he signed the extension, he broke out for 33 goals 27 assists.  Lucic on the other hand had 8 goals and 19 assist for 27 points.  In his second season, he had 17 goals and 29 assists.  Lucic is right on par with Brown’s career path.

Ryan Clowe, the 175th overall pick of the 2001 NHL draft, signed a four year, 14.5 million dollar deal, with the salaries at 3.5, 3.5, 3.5 and then 4, which is 3.625 million per season.  Clowe signed the extension this offseason, after scoring 22 goals and 30 assists.  His 2008-09 campaign was injury plagues, and in his first full season, he posted 16 goals and 18 assists in only 58 games.

Clowe…… 3.625

Now, Lucic has never surpassed 20 goals, but he has shown progression and could turn into a 20 goal scorer.  His offensive skills are not that of Clowe or Brown.  The issue with the Lucic deal is that the term is not long enough to justify the money.  Brown’s deal was six years for a bargain price with similar numbers to Lucic.  Clowe signed a four year deal, but he was buying out UFA years as he was 26 when he signed the deal.  If Lucic’s deal was for less money, closer to Krejci, than we could justify it for the years, or if the term was longer, we could justify the money, but that’s not the case.  While everyone should be happy Lucic re-signed, the money is a little to much for my taste.  While Lucic is a unique player, his offensive skill does not reward a 4 million dollar salary at this time of his career.

12 Responses to Analyzing the Lucic Deal

  1. Mook says:

    nah you’re fucked. lucic is the man. how old is he? exactly. 4mil is cheap.

  2. David Ford says:

    I agree with you. I think he’s the realest Big Bad Bruin” since Neely, but his offensive production doesn’t justify 4 mill.

    I’d prefer 3 Mill, but I ain’t losing sleep over it, because I really want him in a B’s uni for a long time.

  3. Jefe77 says:

    Lucic is worth every penny, and more. Why?? Keep watching. The thought of 80 more games for me to watch Looch wreak havoc brings a shit eating grin to my face at 3 AM. We got hits, an assist, a goal and one beautiful fight thus far.

  4. Mook says:

    To be invited to the Canadian Olympic camp is a very special thing…he is obviously a player who is valued for more than his fighting abilities. Everyone sees that, and he is definitely worth the money. Who says he isn’t the next Cam Neely?

    He can–and will–score a pile of goals. maybe not 50, but that’s because the game is different. Noone will score 92 either…

  5. Gcole says:

    its clear that it is not expected from him to be a high goal scorer, 30’s+. but we do not know that for sure, maybe a few times he’ll get there, he gives savard room to work his magic, protects him very well, how many fuck with savard when lucic is there? i ca only remember chris neil recently, and look how that ended up for him. and would you EVER want to have to play against lucic??? hell no! kessel is different, hes a one way goal scorer, but lucic is a “devastating machine” as one of the TNN announcers said

  6. pekese says:

    Lucic is the face of the franchise. If he hit the market on July 1st, there would be multiple teams lined up with offer sheets, all of which were probably in the $4 million range. When you look at the deal you must take into consideration what other teams were willing to pay for Lucic. If Kessel’s price was driven up to $5.4 million with only two teams bidding for his services, imagine Lucic’s price tag with 29 teams involved. By getting the deal done early the Bruins avoided a situation similar to Kessel’s and got the player they greatly value to stay for the next 3 years. Was it overpayment for his numbers? Sure. But overpaying a player by 500k or even a million annually is well worth it especially for Lucic who is only 21 years old with many years of hockey ahead of him. Additionally, it should be noted that Lucic will be a restricted free agent at the end of his deal, meaning the Bruins still control his rights after this contract.

  7. Bruins says:

    yeah getting krejci and lucic locked up when they are still RFAs at the end of their deals is huge. i really dont think people realize how important lucic is. there is not one other player that offers the package that he does in the entire nhl. not one.

    lucic may very well go down as the most popular bruin to ever play. we needed to lock him up

  8. Andy says:

    I definitely agree with you about the money. I love Looch, but $4 mil/yr is too much. This is why the B’s are right up aganist the cap – they pay 75% of their players 3 mil+/yr. I understand the intangbiles that he brings and I am certainly glad he signed and I’m definitely not disputing that we HAD to lock him up. Plus, maybe he breaks off for 25-30 goals this year. However, I’m not sure how excited I’m going to be when we have to let Savard go (who gets 85-100 pts/yr and our best playmaker) to sign a guy with intangibles and not as much scoring to a $4 mil/yr deal. That is the idea of the game – scoring goals and keeping them out of your net. I think it’s a foregone conclusion that Savvy is gone, unless they can find someone to take Bergeron. I’m glad they locked him up, but I think it’s going to have consequences down the road at that price.

  9. Jefe77 says:

    Savvy will re-sign with the B’s. The Bruins will shave cap space in a few areas before next season.

    Other players are much more expendable than Savvy, who will also I think take a pay-cut to stay in Boston. Time will tell as situations develop this season, and PC always has a plan.

  10. Mook says:

    bruins now have a shitload af draft picks to trade as incentive for teams to take salary…if necessary

  11. psands says:

    yea but who would you trade to dump salary? we do have a lot of young great players coming up, but its hard for me to say who i would part with.

    unless rask has a break out year, then i hate to say it, but trading thomas would free up lots of space.

  12. goonsquad says:

    who do you think the next captain is, great deal, still under arbitration when deal is up, is it not?

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