The Potential Return for Phil Kessel

We now talk about how great the Phil Kessel deal was, trading him for what now seems to be at least a top 3 pick.  At the time, the deal was assumed to be for top mid round 1st picks (10-17) and a mid 2nd rounder (38-45).  Assuming the Maple Leafs did fall into these projections as a middle of the road team, we are looking at this as the talent we’d most likely get.  Since 1999 here are the mid round picks (10-17) and a mid second rounder.  Listed are ones who had any sort of impact in the NHL as a consistent player.

1999 1st round

Oleg Saprykin
David Tanabe
Barret Jackman

1999 2nd round

Alex Auld
Mike Commodore
Jordan Leopold

2000 1st round

Ron Hainsey

2000 2nd round

Kurtis Foster
Matt Pettinger
Ilya Bryzgalov

2001 1st round

Fredrick Sjostrom
Dan Hamhuis
Ales Hemsky
Chuck Kobasew
RJ Umberger

2001 2nd round

Fedor Tyutin

2002 1st round

Keith Ballard
Steve Eminger
Alexander Semin
Chris Higgins

2002 2nd round

Trevor Daley
Matt Greene

2003 1st round

Andrei Kostitsyn
Jeff Carter
Dustin Brown
Brent Seabrook
Steve Bernier
Zach Parise
Robert Nilsson

2003 2nd round

Patrice Bergeron

2004 1st round

Boris Valabik
Drew Stafford
Alexander Radulov
Petteri Nokelainen

2004 2nd round


2005 1st round

Anze Kopitar
Marc Staal
Martin Hanzal

2005 2nd round

Ondrej Pavelec
Justin Abdelkader
Paul Stastny
Guillaume Latendresse

2006 1st round

Michael Frolik
Bryan Little
Jiri Tlustly

2006 2nd round

Nikolai Kulemin

Anything past this draft is hard to account for, as not many mid picks have yet to crack the NHL.  Based on this formula (NHLers/Total Picks), the Bruins have a 40% chance of grabbing a steady NHLer with one of those 1st round picks, and a 20.8% of grabbing a steady NHLer with a 2nd round pick.  Overall, they have a 60.8% chance of grabbing a steady NHLer in a 2010 draft.  But, if we are talking All-Star caliber players, the Bruins have around a 6.5% chance (depending on what you qualify as a All-Star caliber player) of getting one of those type of players in the 2010 draft with Toronto’s picks.  I then note, in the first round, they have around a 10% chance of grabbing All-Star talent.  So overall, the chances of getting GOOD talent are not in the favor of the Bruins.  But all this is at the time of the trade.

Now we project the Leafs as a bottom 3 team, so here is the data for that.  Since 1999, these are the busts/players who haven’t lived up to hype that have been selected in the top 3:

Patrik Stefan
Rick DiPietro
Alexander Svitov
Kari Lehtonen
Nathan Horton
Cam Barker
Jack Johnson
Kyle Turris

Based on this formula (100-busts/picks), the Bruins have a 66.7% chance of selecting a top 3 guy who will live up to the hype aka a franchise player.

Now on to the second round, here are the top 3 2nd round picks since 1999 who have turned into something.

Nick Shultz
Derek Roy
Loui Eriksson
Dave Bolland
James Neal

Based on this formula (100-players/picks), the Bruins have a 20.8% chance of selecting a solid NHLer with this 2nd round pick.

Now none of this is a perfect science, as different teams scout differently, and this data is only from 1999-2007, and players selected from more recent drafts may end up something one day.  But, this is a somewhat telling stat how risky the Phil Kessel deal is, even if the Leafs finish in the top 3.



12 Responses to The Potential Return for Phil Kessel

  1. Bruins46 says:

    This is good stuff…but we can’t analyze too much until we just see what happens eventually with these picks (or if we trade them away) and see the actual return for Kessel. My attitude is that the kid is a cocky, arrogant player who is very good, but didn’t deserve to wear the B. I know he put the puck in the net and as corny as that sounds that’s how I feel. It’s like A-Rod…do yankee fans really like that prick?

  2. Bruins46 says:

    Just as a side note after Game 2 of the quaterfinals last year I saw the players driving their cars out…Kessel had 2 girls in the passenger seat of his escalade, and who knows how many more in the back as I couldn’t see through the tinted windows. Those girls had to be some hardcore puck sluts to be going home with that goofy looking bastard!

  3. Jesse says:

    That was awesome Bruins46 hahaha but I think they will trade most of those picks!!!

  4. mattg says:

    73% of statistics are made up on the spot.

  5. Bruins says:

    a few things on this: i dont know how you can consider dipietro, horton, lehtonen, and barker busts. sure they havent quite lived up to their billing (i realize you said that), but it wouldnt be too bad to land one. its still too early to fully evaluate johnson and turris in my opinion too.

    another thing. you can see that over the years, there have been a lot more hits for drafting. i attribute this to improved scouting, and better development.

    and lastly, ive heard so many people say that we need to get back a player of kessel’s calibre to win the deal. thats not true; we can add pieces that equal having more of an impact than kessel.

  6. Matt says:

    Bruins…would you rather have Sturm and Ryder or Kovalchuk?

    See you can’t go by well I’d rather have two guys= production of 1 great guy, it doesn’t work like that.

  7. Mook says:

    no trades required. the team is fine…


    kessel and savard are worth the same money? no shot. bruins dumped a guy asking for too much.

  8. Bruins says:

    well would you rather have lucic, krejci and bergeron (all seconds) or lecavaillier? parts can add up to be greater than a single piece thats better than any parts

  9. Matt says:

    Well it depends on how you are slicing it. I could also say Ference, Ryder and Paille or Vinny. The point is, based on what we have, you can’t say Extra Production from forwards plus Sturm= Kessel. Doesn’t work like that.

  10. Bruins says:

    yeah obviously you can find three guys that are worse that dont equal up to a better player, but the players the bruins will be getting with those picks probably wont be just any players. the bruins have proven they are one of the better drafting teams in the league

  11. Whopperfoo says:

    Trade the picks for a proven player from a team looking to dump/rebuild closer to the deadline.

  12. Kurt says:

    Those were professional jello wrestling girls hired by Chia and the boys to toughen that pussy up.

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